Editor's note: Chinese economy lies in transition and adjustment process, structure of steady growth, attune, turn 4 when the means, balance art that charging price is Chinese macroscopical adjusting control needs to had turned " ball " . Economy runs in the bureau, opinions vary, for clean up dense fog, channel of finance and economics of Chinese news network rolls out Chinese economy to observe series is commented on. General trends of economy of China of illuminate of reason of do one's best, comb instantly economy sequence of thought objectively, pay close attention to economic structural adjustment closely, analytic economy reforms deepness and policy tendercy, with period present real Chinese economy for the reader.
In new network on July 16 report (Ceng Huisheng of channel of finance and economics) the 2 quarters that announce yesterday and economic data shows first half of the year, chinese economy growth puts delay once more. Nevertheless the expert thinks, 2 quarters increase fast fall after a rise to 7.5% , the reasonable interval that still maintains in the government; What Chinese government puts delay to economy is patient degree rising, can pay attention to the quality that economy grows more; Macroscopical economic policy won't have future to change greatly; Economy is added fast put delay to be helpful for moving a structure moderately, need takes the chance to push economic reform quickly.
Economy adds fast continuance fall after a rise to still be in reasonable interval
The data that bureau of statistic of 15 days of countries publishs shows, 2 quarters economy increases fast fall after a rise to 7.5% , the 7.7% fall after a rise than first quarter 0.2 percent, economy is added first half of the year fast for 7.6% . This is occupied with the market before this and economist people anticipate photograph be identical.
Economy of spokesman of news of natvancouver to harrison hot springsional statistic bureau, countryman is integrated Cheng Laiyun of statistical department director thinks, economy is added fast putting delay is administration adjusts actively the result with economic structural adjustment, also have Chinese economy the influence of the objective element that potential increase rate drops.
Senior analyst Zhou Jingtong is opposite department of development of strategy of Bank of China in analysis of channel of new network finance and economics, the impact that foreign trade exit glides to put delay to 2 quarters economy is bigger. British finance times on July 15 also cite expert says, exit depression, retail trade sells exhausted soft to invest hasten to be affected infirmly,watch case manufacturer 2 quarterly economy growth of Chinese put delay to 7.5% .
Cheng Laiyun expresses, national economy moves first half of the year overall and smooth, main index lies inside reasonable interval. 2 quarters growth is 7.5% , scope of fall after a rise is very little, successive the interval that 5 quarters economy runs in 7.4%-7.9% , moving is smoother.
Guo Tianyong of research center director checks trade of Bank of China of university of central finance and economics in channel of new network finance and economics expresses, of prospective China economy add fast center next moving accord with objective law, add fast meeting to maintain in " be agitated " level, 2 quarters are added fast 7.5% still be in reasonable interval.
Li Huiyong of presiding and macroscopical analyst represents Shen Yinmo state, 2 quarters and the economic data first half of the year are very good, accord with anticipate, although demonstrative economy has pressure of be issued to lower levels but in can accuse interval inside. Ox of director of macroscopical economy lab plows national information center to also think, anticipate before the data that published yesterday and this agree basically, economy is overall still be in the most popular the best spring poolwatch casessmooth condition, investment is smooth, industrial amplitude under anticipate, can pull move GDP to maintain in at present level, consumptive result cannot be done not havebrass faucet.
north face shirtsThe government is patient degree raise policy to won't change
On July 12, standing conference points out the State Council, chinese economic situation is overall and smooth since this year, should carry policy successional with stability, stable market anticipates. In the meantime, should adopt actively already the steady growth, significant step that moves strfree watch caseuctural with one action to be gotten more again, exert oneself expands inside need.
At present till, china did not roll out anfree norton internet antivirusy exciting policy. The expert thinks, what Chinese government puts delay to economy is patient degree rising. harrison hot spring deal
"The government is added to economy spring poolfast those who put delay is patient degree rising for certain, the government does not think, also won't maintain high speed growth through investnorth face shirtsing exciting old road. " Guo Tianyong is right in analysis of channel of new network finance and economics, monetary policy still can continue to maintain dovish neutral, be in charge of good gross; Can develop finance policy and industrial policy to adjust through more economy.
In economist of center of communication of China International economy Xu Hongcai looks, the possibility that reduces interest rate or bank deposit reserve to lead currently is not large. Zun Xiaolei of presiding president adviser, president also emphasizes galactic negotiable securities, do not spur faster growth artificially. "Exciting " policy is crisis policy, do not want to be used in disorder. Liu Ting of economist of beautiful Yin Meilin thinks, the odds that China relaxes monetary policy is 0, but Chinese government faces the pressure that will stimulate economy with enlarging communal defray.
Initiate negotiable securities studies Wang Jianhui shows a vise general manager, prospective policy won't appear to be adjusted greatly, monetary policy also won't short-term come on stage, chinese economy " hard-land " be anxious to did not appear. The law promotes Shi Yaowei of bank China economy to analyse, look from data, economy is added fast centrally is sufferable inside limits, the likelihood on policy won't have loosen, still give priority to with structural adjustment and control banking venture.
Put delay benefit to take the chance to push reform quickly at moving a structure appropriately
Cheng Laiyun expresses in the press conference, although economy increases fast fall after a rise, but the government is to realize this kind is added apparently fast proper fall after a rise is to be helpful for moving a structure, turn of means, so although be in fall after a rise, very sober still also ground insists to move structure, hurried to reform. From will for a long time look, this decision-making it is correct.
Last week, lou Jiwei of minister of Chinese Ministry of finance is on Sino-US strategy and economic dialog express, administration is adopting measure to advance structural adjustment, basically include decontrol, cancel administration to examine and approve, adjust price twist to wait.
"Economy is added fast put delay really benefit at structural adjustment, because high speed grows, everybody earns money very easily, adjust without motivation. But economy is added fast also cannot fall too lowly. " Guo Tianyong expresses, economic reform of future wants more to release the energy of microcosmic main body, more produces the dominant effect of the market. For instance, financial industry and state-owned economy take the trade of dominant position, more is opened to civilian battalion capital; The government wants desalt oneself to be in the function of investment and capital construction respect, turn to service and the people's livelihood.
Occupy Reuter 15 days to report, china tries to reduce economy to be depended on to what export and invest, superintend through reform and be being loosened encourage consumptive growth. "Look from overall condition, hypostatic economy pressure is greater still, this and a lot of domain are produced can superfluous, the company invests apiration to be concerned not by force. " Niu Li also is analysed, at present the key of policy is to reforming a respect.
Li Huiyong is judged, economic both neither is at present cold not hot also, accelerate the inning of reform just about, promote economy vigor, the key that releases reform bonus depends on system of income allocation, banking reform and do away with forestall to produce energy of civilian battalion economy.
Guo Tianyong is right in channel of new network finance and economics expresses, chinese economy will be paid attention to more add quality, pay attention to connotation type growth, rely on economic structural adjustment, progress of support science and technology, industry upgrades and expand inside need to wait will form new economic point of growth. As structural adjustment of new round of economy, reform bonus is released. In light of the connotation that grows from economy, chinese economy will be more strong with health.
