A few days ago, the N that Chinese house price comes out tfree modern dining chairso drop impossibly onspring pool the net without with elenctic reason.
Won't house price plunge?
Chinese town turns issue of red line of the land in the process is the issue that does not confuse the past. 40 people forum released Chinese finance a few days ago " land system reform and new-style town are changed " report, put forward " the train of thought that the change strictlies observe farmland red line, enlarge town to build the program that use the land " . Initiated the debate to red line of 1.8 billion mus of farmland again. So, construction is changed in new-style town in, whether should be traditional land red line also adjusted subsequently, if must change, what kind of principle and path should follow again? Times weekly reporter at this point professor of economics of problem special interview, Beijing (building dish) Yao Yang of dean of academy of university nation development. Yao Yang thinks, china need not worry about food safety problem, but stem from the consideration that reduces land waste, still answer set farmland red line.
"Land red line " because commissariat is safe,existence is not only problem
Times weekly: Look from your understanding, most is center of junior high school makes policy of farmland red line to be based on what kind ofly to think? Is this farmland red line at present necessary still? Why?
spring poolYao Yang: In the center of at the outset original intention includes food safety already, also include to prevent land waste. Food safety is in almost all country (likelihood besides the nation withvancouver to harrison hot springs those very rich land) it is a serious problem, be in especially these Asian people more little country, more such. So, having one part reason really is us the farmland a future life with certain need produces food. But the consideration omodern dining chairsf this respect, I consider as more and more not important. The population of growth rate outclass of the grain crop of our country increases rate. Came down on average 30 years in the past, the volume of grain increase production with annual estimation is in 2% the left and right sides. This is a very optimistic number, have 0.7% only because of year of our average population increase rate. Still the science and technology that is Chinese agriculture progresses. The history since green revolution tells us, the potential of grain increase production is very great, if we are willing to use,turn the word of gene technology, the latent capacity of grain increase production is infinite almost. The progress of our norton internet antivirusbiology technology is very rapid, so farmland won't make the strong tie that agriculture produces. Not be to say to do not have a tie, but its tie is not strong. Accordingly, light dominates farmland red line from agriculture and the angle with safe commissariat, I feel the meaning is not so big.
Nevertheless, have other mainer reason makes we need to control farmland. A problem that exists in reality is, if do not control farmland, local government and farmer with respect to dilate of can absoluteness ground their construction uses the land. If do not have index limitation, farming ground changes can special random to blame praedial, this can create the waste of land natural resources.
In any country, use land is extremely discreet, want to pass earnest examination. E.g. the United States, land program is a very significant section, saying this is agricultural the ground, that is agricultural the ground, should turn into business the ground, be no good. Want to change a program, it is very difficult. Say to reduce land waste so, it is a when control land use main reason.
Still have a reason, it is to maintain modes of life and relation to their environment, if farmland became industrial land and city to use the land, the likelihood changes zoology environment. Moreover, our land system decides country, government can ask for the ground, be in a country is collective and all, did not fall to hand within of the individual truly, so land creates waste very easily.
Be based on above these reasons, I think to need to have red line of a farmland.
Times weekly: So, make farmland red line in 1.8 billion mus on this number, whether to stem from some kind to think scientificly?
Yao Yang: Actually this also science of it doesn't matter can be told. If say 1.8 billion mus unscientific, 1.9 billion mus also may not science. But itself of land red line is need. So since already set 1.8 billion mus, that does not adjust it again.
Times weekly: About " land system reform and new-style town are changed " the replaces pure now land area red line with land equivalent red line proposal that mentions in the report, how do you think? Analyse from the technology feasible?
Yao Yang: The method that uses land equivalent red line is more scientific of course, give rate activate according to earthy real estate namely equivalent of a land, land index is about land equivalent, e.g. our set 1.8 billion mus some kind equivalent red line, can assure the land supplementary balance on equivalent meaning so. This kind of practice should for also be more feasible. Picture identifying spends present satellitic remote sensing very tall, can see each land is what appearance.
Must let land index be on the move rise
Times weekly: Town changes the companion in the process as cannot evasive land demand increases and peasant land is on the move problem, supply with finite land again at the same time afoul. What is the essence that you think this kind conflicts?
Yao Yang: Town changes supply of the land in the process to have restriction, not be evildoing: Land is our country is rare lack resource, open wide impossibly supply. Person much ground is little it is the essential cause that land rises in price. Our urban density is lower and lower now, the waste of urban land is increasing. But if say to want to cancel to use ground index, and make land direct enter town, if the use of land does not have the set of inharrison hot spring public pooldex, so land has increase and decrewatch case manufacturerase far from possibly to balance, because do not have a tie. See here have so much land e.g. me, sell the land of particular area every year, so the price of land is lower and lower, can make construction density of the city lower only, increased land waste.
I think land index still the best selling north face shirtsmust want, but land index ought to be on the move rise. E.g. Hangzhou (building dish) land index is gone, so buy land index to underdeveloped area, such land index are on the move rose. Of course, build farmland red line above all only, ability will be useful ground index, just build the market of land index possibly. This also is one of reason that I think China needs to have red line of a farmland.
Times weekly: Whether does town change land demand to you can pound the set with farmland existing area? If meet, how to solve this to use ground contradiction?
Yao Yang: This kind of contradictory affirmation can have. Town is changed still basically is to be in at present develop area. I feel to should have mechanism of a compensation. It is to want to be restricted with land index above all. If index gave out, it is go buying to underdeveloped area, 2 it is yourself the building reconstructive a bit taller. Of course this just alleviates, the competition of demand of land of this two respects can exist for certain. But having this competition is meddlesome, if land did not form to restrain, so is the waste of land not bigger?
Times weekly: Be on the move besides index, what measure should still adopt to alleviate is this kind contradictory?
Yao Yang: Be on the move besides land index, still should raise a city to build density. We present policy rather, it is to stipulate volume rate is restricted high, the result was to reduce building density.
Stand fast red line can reduce land waste
Times weekly: What a lot of people furnish the land of ascribe of tall look forward to brass faucetof eye anteroom price is insufficient, the view unlocks red line in othe most popular north face shirtsrder to lower house price, do you think whether this kind of view is reasonable?
Yao Yang: This is normal, china lacks land namely originally. Land price is house price is important one part, this is very normal. Our government from get among land very big one share profit also is normal. Mr Sun Zhongshan has said early, land rises in price give to the public. Have this land e.g. you, will develop one day, you became billionaire, is this appropriate?
Theoretic say, unlocking land to supply is to be able to lower house price really. But it is necessary that I feel to maintain present land supply policy. Land is impossible to be supplied without ground of set limit to, this meeting creates much land waste.
Want a house price to pull this idea to be in going up at all is a mistake. That is American dream, come true impossibly in China. Actually house price tall look forward to basically is centered in city of a gleam of, be in 2, what 3 lines city did not imagine is so tall, without what this room value is so good complain. Price of house of town of a gleam of is high also be normal. The people of the whole country buys a house in city of our a gleam of, still have a foreigner even, is this house price not high?
Yao Yang
Vice director of research center of economy of China of noted economist Beijing University
